Bullish on Developing Macro - Mar 2023 -

Dedollarization and the Green Transition

Falling Oil Production - Feb 2022

Brazil is the only country in the world who expects to produce more in 5 or 10 years and is making the required investments. Elsewhere, there has been precious little capital expenditure (outside of fracking) for over a decade beyond what’s needed to maintain current production levels. Keeping production even requires a lot of energy and money - which hasn’t actually been going in very much. The super majors all plan to reduce production every year from now on. Some national oil companies are aiming at maintaining levels (or in Brazil’s case raising). Private US and Canadian companies are also planning to increase.